By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports columnist
This is the time in any NBA campaign, right at the start of it, when everyone knows what is going to happen.
The start date has been shifted, the fans are mostly missing from venues, the schedule has been cut by 10 games - but one thing remains constant.
More than any other league, the NBA breeds defiant certainty in the minds of its followers. And the beginning of any season, when fate and circumstance haven’t yet had the chance to weave their course-veering influence, is the peak of it.
Because that’s when everyone gets down to the highly satisfying business of dreaming up the juiciest storylines and the most appetizing finales imaginable. That’s right, it’s December, and everyone is thinking and talking about July.
Right now is when everyone knows without question that LeBron James will be just as good at age 36, fired by the chase for Michael Jordan’s tally of six titles, and the chance to reign as the mightiest force in the league once more.
"Our organization wants their respect, Laker Nation wants their respect," James said, after winning the Lakers 17th title and his fourth, 10 weeks ago. "And I want my damn respect too."
He’s got it.
Heading across the country, right now is when large sections of the basketball public know that the Brooklyn Nets will come up strong in the Eastern Conference, spurred by a revitalized Kevin Durant and his rehabbed, rested and recharged Achilles.
Not everyone knows the same thing, but we all know something.
A ton of people know that Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to justify his mega contract, enjoy the addition of Jrue Holiday and finally add a chapter of playoff excellence to his dominant surge through the regular season for the Milwaukee Bucks.
And perhaps just as many know that such things are not guaranteed, and that Holiday may not be the right part to ensure the Bucks are as good when spring becomes summer as they were all year long.
There is a lot of knowledge around James Harden: whether it is knowing he’s going to leave the Houston Rockets, knowinghe’s going to stay, knowing that he’s going to score just as heavily as always or knowing that his off-court irascibility is going to catch up and dim his powers.
With Luka Doncic, there is knowing that his third season will be a further breakout and MVP candidature, and knowing he will face greater defensive attention than ever and that he’ll have to adapt.
"If Luka misses less than 10 games he will win MVP," FS1’s Nick Wright said on First Things First. "I would bet and have bet any amount of money on it."
According to FOX Bet, Doncic is currently listed as the favorite to win the 2020-21 NBA regular season MVP at +350, followed by Antetokounmpo at +450 and Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis at +800.
The knowing is fine and it is part of what makes the NBA special. The league’s athletes are so socially relevant and their level of excellence is so high that it makes the fans feel like they have a natural grasp of what is going on. Everyone feels like an expert, and everyone has an opinion they are prepared to defend.
Obviously, the things we know often become the things we thought we knew, but actually didn’t, which is why the start of the season is so nice – because such awakenings are usually still months away.
The opinions and the certainties are what get us through the offseason and it keeps the chatter mill going incessantly. The talk and speculation are what the league thrives upon even more than its action, for when there are so many games it is hard to identify any single one as seismic and transformative.
Think of last season, for example, when the presumptive Los Angeles showdown between the Lakers and the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals was all anyone cared to discuss. It was spoken of as fact, broken down and analyzed from the moment Kawhi Leonard and Paul George paired together, and previewed as early as November.
And then, having provided an endless supply of debate and discussion, it didn’t happen – and somehow it didn’t matter so much that it didn’t.
When something is that expected it takes an outcome equally remarkable to prevent it from taking place, so while it was a shame for many that the battle for L.A. didn’t go ahead in Orlando, the antidote to the sting was getting to see an incredible fightback from a Denver Nuggets team that was courageous and determined enough to bounce out the Clippers.
The NBA’s secret sauce is that it manages to be both predictable and also the polar opposite. There is enough familiarity that the big names continue to shine, building their mystique even more.
Yet then there is still enough of a sporting factor and potential for surprise to provide the wow moments. No one knewanything about the Miami Heat except that they were going to be a fringe playoff team, until a spectacular run through the bubble saw them get to the NBA Finals and take the Lakers to six games. When it happened, it was more refreshing than a cup of Jimmy Butler’s infamous $20 coffee.
Since then, there has been a short break but a full reset. However things shake out, for now the storylines are as intriguing as they ever were, revolving around big names, big teams, big egos and big potential.
The L.A. arm wrestle appears tilted towards the Lakers but remains a compelling chapter, the KD-and-Kyrie (Irving) Show promises to be unmissable, while Antetokounmpo and Doncic are fighting to prove this time is theirs.
Those are the anchors, but before long there will be wrinkles in those stories and the emergence of new ones, the things no one saw coming. If history has taught us anything, it is that not all the big stars will have everything run smoothly, new names will stride forwards, fresh themes will develop.
What will they be and when will they come? Who knows?
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