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When the COVID-19 pandemic began, people around the world changed their shopping behavior dramatically.
Face new UncertaintyShoppers have begun hoarding basic household items, especially toilet paper, to explain the new unknown. In most cases, buying only what people needed would have been enough to avoid it, but this enthusiasm for buying led to a shortage.
According to a study led by UNSW Sydney, such reactive behavior is not uncommon, but it is a common way to deal with unexpected uncertainties.
In fact, unexpected uncertainty is a powerful motivation for change, and often encourages us to coordinate our behavior, even if it is not good for us.
“When people experience unexpected changes in the environment, they start looking for ways to mitigate that uncertainty,” said Dr. Adrian Walker, the lead author of the study that completed the study as part of his PhD. increase. Majored in Psychology at UNSW Science. “They can change their behavior and decision-making strategies to find ways to regain some control.
“Surprisingly, our research shows that unexpected uncertainties change people’s behavior even when it’s better to stick to old strategies.”
Recently published behavioral research Experimental Psychology Journal: Learning, Memory, and CognitionIs the first example of the type of uncertainty we experience, whether it is expected or not, and plays an important role in our reaction.
For example, a city worker who knows that a morning commute can take 30 to 50 minutes will not be surprised by a 50-minute trip. Country drivers, on the other hand, would be very surprised if a predictable 30-minute trip suddenly took 50 minutes.
To test how people react to unexpected changes, researchers ask study participants to sell a pair of objects to one of two subjects (aliens in this scenario) in a virtual simulation. I requested. Their job was simple: earn as many points (or “alien dollars”) as you can.
Participants had to choose an alien to sell a pair of chemicals, but only one of the chemicals determined the amount the alien would pay. They needed to understand which chemical and alien combinations would bring them the greatest rewards.
The first group of 35 participants was familiar with the task and quickly learned that one strategy (eg Option A) offered a better offer of 15 points. However, the reward pattern changed in the middle of the experiment, and Option A gave a random number of 8 to 22 points.
“As soon as we added the element of uncertainty, participants began looking for new ways to complete the task,” says Dr. Walker. “The kickers are that in all cases the best they could do was to use their old strategy.”
Dr. Walker states that the pandemic and our various responses to it are large examples of unexpected uncertainties.
“Everything changed suddenly at the start of COVID-19,” he says.
“Many of us suddenly worked from home, changed the way we shop, changed the way we socialize. The old rules of life no longer apply, and when and how the pandemic happened. There was no clear answer about.
“Various people have tried all sorts of things, such as panic shopping, to reduce this new uncertainty and bring it back to’normal’. However, as we have seen, not all of these reaction strategies have been good in the long run. “
Boiled frog syndrome
Unexpected uncertainties have had dramatic reactions, while expected uncertainties have had the opposite effect.
In the second phase of the study, researchers gradually introduced uncertainty into another group of 35 participants. The usual 15 points for Option A have been changed to 14-16 points, then 13-17 points, until the uncertainty rises to 8-22 points.
“Even though uncertainty eventually reached the same level as in the first experiment, participants’ behavior did not change dramatically,” says Dr. Walker.
“When uncertainty was gradually introduced, people were able to maintain their old strategy.”
This particular experiment was designed so that the original strategy was most beneficial, but Dr. Walker says it showed the harm of not changing behavior when faced with other studies. Gradual change..
“This pattern is seen in many real-life challenges, such as the climate change crisis,” says Dr. Walker.
“If the change is slow and barely noticeable, there is no sudden prompt to change our behavior, so we keep the old behavior.
“Trying to deal with climate change is a lot like the parable of a boiled frog. When you put a frog in a pot and boil the water, the water gradually warms up and you don’t notice the threat. , It’s too late to jump out. “
Professor Ben Newell, Vice President of UNSW Psychology School, was one of the researchers involved in this project. He says an important next step in this study is to translate insights into how people react to laboratory uncertainties into engaging people in climate change control. increase.
“If we can identify the impetus for new alternatives, we may be able to overcome the inertia inherent in the development of new sustainable behaviors,” says Professor Newell.
I’m confident about the uncertainty
Uncertainty is a daily problem that humans face, such as how bad traffic is and what questions are asked during exams.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has cast a new layer of uncertainty in key areas of our lives, such as career, health and living environment.
“This study is not a complete picture of human behavior during a pandemic, but it does help explain why many have sought new ways to add certainty to their lives,” said the school now. Researcher Dr. Walker says. Majored in Psychiatry at UNSW Medicine & Health.
Dr. Tom Beesley, a former UNSW native and now based at Lancaster University, said: And with that.
“My laboratory is trying to formalize this relationship with the following computational model. ActionThis allows you to make clearer predictions about what is expected to happen under various uncertain conditions. ”
Although Dr. Walker’s work is currently focused on psychoepidemiology, he is interested in predicting where future research in this area will go, especially individual reactions to uncertainty.
“Given the number of decisions we make under the uncertainty of our daily lives, we hope that people will be able to make good decisions so that they can understand how these decisions are made. “I will,” says Dr. Walker.
Protection from uncertainty in exploration / exploration trade-offs, including Adrian R. Walker. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition (2021). DOI: 10.1037 / xlm0000883
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