A new projection of COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania shows thousands more people dying this spring, and the toll could be 20% higher under unfavorable circumstances.
The worse-case scenario is based on increased mobility among those vaccinated and unvaccinated, how fast virus variants spread and how effective vaccines are against one variant in particular, and how many people wear face coverings.
The projection comes from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that has been tracking the coronavirus pandemic from the beginning.
IHME’s latest numbers come at a critical juncture for the United States’ ability to control the virus’ spread, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“There is so much that’s critical riding on the next two months,” the CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, told the National League of Cities on Monday, according to cnn.com. “How quickly we will vaccinate versus whether we will have another surge really relies on what happens in March and April.”
The IHME projections released March 6 show an additional 3,308 deaths likely in Pennsylvania by July 1, bringing the toll from the virus to 27,511 lives lost since March 2020. Under the worse-case scenario, the toll could reach 32,914 -- a difference of 5,403 people or 19.6% compared to the projection considered most likely.
The following chart looks at Pennsylvania’s total projected COVID-19 deaths as of July 1. Click here to view it, since it may not display on all platforms, or to view a full-screen version.
IHME’s projection for New Jersey shows 2,347 more people dying by July 1 from COVID-19, with a difference of 3,445 deaths (13.3%) between that most-likely scenario and the worse case. Click here to view the New Jersey death toll projection.
Nationwide, IHME projects 57,940 more people likely to die as of July 1, but that toll could be 65,306 or 11.3% higher if the worse-case scenario becomes reality. Click here for the United States death toll projection.
Note that each IHME projection includes a best-case scenario where mask-wearing increases to 95%, slightly cutting the number of new deaths beyond March 6.
Fully vaccinated Americans can gather with other vaccinated people indoors without wearing a mask or social distancing, The Associated Press reports, citing long-awaited guidance this week from federal health officials.
Each IHME projection also considers the spread of virus variants, with the worse-case scenario factoring in lower effectiveness on the part of vaccines against the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa.
IHME researchers last week looked at the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, and said it will be challenging for the world to reach herd immunity.
The researchers also looked at whether COVID-19 will become a chronic seasonal disease, saying it’s unclear but more likely as immunity from infections or vaccines drops.
“There is too much uncertainty about the probability and frequency of emergence of new variants, the reduction in vaccine efficacy for each variant, the critical question of cross-variant immunity, and the consistency of safe human behavior,” the researchers wrote. “However, the prospect of persistent and seasonal COVID-19 is real.”
RELATED:
Pennsylvania’s coronavirus death toll is more than tripled in new projection (May 5, 2020)
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Kurt Bresswein may be reached at kbresswein@lehighvalleylive.com.
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